By DIRK VANDERHART and Lauren Dake/Oregon Public Broadcasting
Some corners of the country were shocked Tuesday, when a presidential race many predicted would be down to the wire instead fell easily to President-elect Donald Trump. But in Oregon, surprises were hard to come by.
In a year in which Republicans may be poised to claim the U.S. House, Senate and White House, Oregon voters did what they have reliably done for much of this century — handed Democrats the reins to state government.
As of the latest results, the party is expected to maintain control of all statewide offices. And Democrats have reclaimed a three-fifths “supermajority” in the state Senate that will let them pass any bill on a party-line vote.
While the race remains too close to call, it’s also possible Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum will flip the 5th Congressional District seat currently held by Republican U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer.
Republican Will Lathrop, running for attorney general, had the best shot this election cycle of nabbing a statewide seat for the GOP. He was beaten handily by Democrat Dan Rayfield.
The results led to internal dissonance as both parties took stock of their results Wednesday — Democrats’ joy over their Oregon wins was tempered by uncertainty and fear of what will emerge on the federal level, while what might have been a rapturous reaction in the GOP nationally gave way to some frustration the party gained no ground in the state.
“It would be one thing if Trump loses and we lose the [U.S.] Senate. That would be really deflating,” said Bryan Iverson, a Republican consultant who works on Oregon legislative races. But the prospect of the GOP capturing a federal “trifecta,” he said, “makes you feel better as an American.”
Rep. Val Hoyle, a Democrat who won re-election to her 4th Congressional District seat, said she is going back east willing to work in a bipartisan fashion — but not without some trepidation.
“I recognize the results of the election, and I’ll work with anyone and that is the spirit I’ll go with to D.C.,” she said. “I do have concerns the Trump administration is not going to want to address [Oregon’s] concerns because we didn’t vote for him … if we have a wildfire, natural disasters or an earthquake — will it affect our ability to get help?”
The parties brought different explanations for the divergence between Oregon’s results and those of the country at large.
For their part, Republicans grumbled that political maps drawn by Democrats in 2021 put them in a steep hole when trying to win back parity in the Legislature.
“We are having to compete in districts that many would argue are out of reach,” said John Swanson, who helped run GOP state Senate campaigns this year. “You just have to go back to who’s drawing the map.”
As of Wednesday, it appeared Democrats would flip a seat in the state Senate, achieving an 18-12 supermajority, while the makeup of the state House would remain unchanged at 35-25. Some races remained close, however.
“What is surprising is how good Oregon looked [for Democrats] despite the national landscape,” said Oliver Muggli, who coordinated Senate Democrats’ legislative races. The takeaway, he said, is that voters bought into warnings Republicans would erode access to abortion, and that “Oregonians want a check and balance” on federal politicians.
Democrats also maintained their lock on statewide offices, winning open seats for secretary of state, attorney general and state treasurer.
Despite that success, the mood at a Democratic Party event in downtown Portland was subdued Tuesday evening, as participants glumly watched CNN broadcast results of the contests for president and U.S. Senate.
“I know that we’re all feeling the weight of this moment, the uncertainty, the tension, the knowledge that the future of our country is on the line tonight,” Gov. Tina Kotek told the restive crowd early in the evening. “Tonight’s election isn’t just about a president or about the control of Congress. It’s about who we are as a people.”
U.S. Rep. Andrea Salinas, a Democrat, who appears on track to win reelection to Oregon’s 6th Congressional District, got big cheers later in the evening when she promised to return to Washington, D.C., to “fight like hell.”
Some Republicans suggested Wednesday the party could have made more headway with a sharper strategy — both in legislative and statewide contests.
The last Republican to hold statewide office was Dennis Richardson, who died of brain cancer while serving as secretary of state in 2019. Julie Parrish, a former state lawmaker and an attorney, was instrumental in running Richardson’s campaign. Richardson, she said, was conservative but ran a campaign that steered away from national talking points.
“We went into Multnomah County and we campaigned there, and we treated those voters who were not Republicans like they were our neighbors and they were worthy of having an intellectually honest conversation,” Parrish said, adding that too often “the campaigns continually devolve into social issues.”
That was true of this year’s attorney general race, in which Rayfield made it clear he would prioritize protecting abortion access if it came under federal attack. Parrish said Republicans have to do a better job at messaging. The race for attorney general should have been dominated by local topics, such as consumer protection issues, she said, like a spike in utility rates.
“You can still get your taxpayer-funded abortion in Oregon and that is not going to change [no matter who is attorney general],” Parrish said. “So can we talk about my electric bill?”
But Democrats maintained Wednesday that their success in the state had a lot to do with local issues. Senate President Rob Wagner and other top Democrats said their party had responded to voter concerns about housing and open drug use.
“We came in and went to work, rolled up our sleeves, found big bipartisan majorities to pass housing legislation and addressed recriminalization of fentanyl,” he said. “For us at the state level, it’s getting really local. It’s putting your ear to the rail and listening to what people are talking about.”
Or Democrats’ success could have more to do with the institutional advantages the party has built in recent decades, according to Chris Shortell, a political science professor at Portland State University. Those include a significant voter registration advantage and sophisticated ground operations for Democratic candidates.
“In Oregon and Washington, the Republican Party as an institution isn’t as strong as it is in some of these other states,” Shortell said. “It can be harder for Republicans to take advantage of favorable electoral opportunities when the infrastructure isn’t there.”
While Vice President Kamala Harris claimed Oregon’s eight electoral votes Tuesday as expected, many counties showed a rightward shift in their presidential preferences compared to 2020.
At an election party on Tuesday night, held at a golf club about 18 miles south of downtown Portland, Republicans celebrated Trump’s victory — and didn’t seem particularly downtrodden about the losses at the statewide level. Instead many felt vindicated and excited to return to the policies and values they believe are foundational to the country’s founding.
One woman wore a red-white-and-blue dress with “Make America Great Again” printed in block letters. Others took turns posing with a picture of Trump with his fist raised and the words “fight, fight, fight” across the top.
“I just love how [Trump] brings people together and unifies them on the values our country was built on,” said Gretchen Renard, 62, of Lake Oswego. “I love his family. It says the world to me when your children love you and honor you and respect you. When a president isn’t drinking or doing drugs.”
Despite the Democratic dominance at the statewide level — Oregonians have not elected a Republican governor since the early 1980s — state Republicans said they are in the process of rebuilding.
“I think there’s been this stereotype perpetuated about who the Republican Party is. And the reality is that we are a party that is very diverse across beliefs, across races … our chair is a Korean immigrant,” said Angela Plowhead, who is the vice chair of the state Republican Party and is biracial.
But Bruce Starr, a Republican from Dundee, who will return to the Legislature after he was elected to serve in the state Senate on Tuesday night, allowed for a moment of exasperation, especially when it came to the race for attorney general.
“So at some point Oregonians have got to say, ‘Do we love it the way it is?’ If we do, we’ll keep electing the same kind of people apparently,” Starr said.
U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz told OPB’s “Think Out Loud” that Trump has “his fingers on the pulse of a nation” and would move quickly to reverse President Joe Biden’s executive policies and take action on the U.S.-Mexico border.
While Bentz praised Trump, he also threw cold water on one of his signature campaign promises: a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Bentz said doing something like that would present a lot of logistical challenges.
“The sheer number of people that it would take to engage in, quote, ‘mass deportation,’ would be huge,” he said.
Bentz also argued that although a GOP-controlled Congress would be allied with Trump, it would not be beholden to him. While Republican politics have often included contentious primaries and increasing levels of public fealty to Trump, Bentz said congressional Republicans would need to spend time learning to get along to achieve their priorities.
“We’re not led by the nose by the president,” he said. “We’re a separate but equal branch of the government.”