New state-required climate report says Oregon will become warmer, drier with more rain than snow

By MICHELLE KLAMPE/OSU News Service

CORVALLIS – Oregon is becoming warmer and more prone to drought and will see less snow due to climate change, but people and businesses are also adapting to the challenges of a warming planet, the latest Oregon Climate Assessment indicates.

The assessment, released Wednesday by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University, shows that Oregon’s annual average temperature increased by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the last century and is likely to become as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the next 50 years.

Oregon’s precipitation was below average for 18 of the last 24 years. The state is likely to see significant changes in precipitation type in the future, with snowfall projected to decrease by as much as 50 percent by 2100, and more precipitation falling as rain.

The 300-page assessment, now in its seventh iteration, provides policymakers and the public with an overview of Oregon-related climate change science and the opportunities and risks that climate change poses to the state’s natural and human systems.

“Knowledge of the biological, physical and social impacts of climate change better informs society’s decisions about how to respond,” said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, which produces the biennial assessment. “The assessment, which is mandated by state law, underscores that understanding, mitigating and preparing for climate change is a priority for the state of Oregon.”

The assessment is divided into three sections: trends and advances in climate science; climate-related natural hazards; and adaptation sectors, including the intersections of climate change and the economy, public health and the built environment. The assessment is primarily based on peer-reviewed research.

Included in this year’s adaptation section is an overview of Oregon-based businesses’ response to climate change, including voluntary efforts by companies to mitigate associated risks. Oregon has the third highest number of corporations certified as upholding high standards of social and environmental performance, accountability and transparency.

“Those are indications that businesses are seeing diverse advantages to mitigating and adapting to climate change,” Fleishman said.

Findings of the assessment include:

• A single, significant wildfire smoke event in Oregon could lead to localized and industry-specific economic losses and reduce the state’s annual gross domestic product by at least $1 billion.
• The number of short-term health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to increase considerably over the next 25 years, especially among older adults. Drought also is associated with negative physical and mental health outcomes.
• Reforestation in Oregon could play a key role in carbon storage, with potential sequestration of 3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2030 and 16 million tons by 2050.
• Floating offshore wind energy could contribute to Oregon’s clean energy goals but faces a range of questions and concerns from Oregonians and tribes. The assessment includes a comprehensive overview of existing science related to offshore wind energy, its benefits and impacts, and how the industry is responding to challenges.
• Strategically planting more urban trees can help reduce temperatures in buildings, lowering energy costs, increasing air circulation and providing other public health benefits. But maintaining urban trees can also be demanding, with potential increased maintenance costs, exacerbation of seasonal allergies and roots impacting sidewalks and sewers.
• As impacts of climate change are increasingly felt, demands on the legal system have grown and climate change-related litigation at the state and national levels has increased sharply over the last 20 years.

The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute is housed in Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. More than 65 collaborators affiliated with OCCRI, including researchers with OSU, Oregon Health & Science University and Portland State University and numerous state and federal agencies, contributed to the Oregon Climate Assessment.

The full assessment is available online at https://blogs.oregonstate.edu/occri/oregon-climate-assessments/