New numbers show for the first time in decades that Lincoln County lost population in 2025

By the Lincoln Chronicle staff

After rapid population increases between 2015 and 2020, the number of residents in Lincoln County has since flattened and then declined in 2025, according to an annual report published by Portland State University’s Population Research Center.

It’s all a matter of more people dying in Lincoln County than being born or moving here.

Of the five counties that make up northwest Oregon, three – Lincoln, Tillamook and Clatsop – saw their populations decline in 2025 while Benton and Columbia counties recorded gains, according to new PSU population estimates for every county and incorporated city in Oregon.

All five northwest Oregon counties had recorded population growth over the past decade, according to an analysis of the PSU report by Oregon Employment Department workforce analyst Brittany Hjelte. That ended last year.

“Clatsop County experienced the strongest relative population growth in the region, beginning in 2020 and has maintained this pace since,” Hjelte said in her report. “All three coastal counties, Clatsop, Lincoln, and Tillamook, showed significant population increases in 2020.”

Hjelte said the increases coincided with the expansion of remote work and early retirements related to the Covid pandemic “both of which may have prompted relocations to coastal communities.”

But population numbers are now drifting down.

Lincoln County had 50,428 residents in 2025, according to PSU’s certified estimates – 342 fewer than in 2024. The county’s population in 2023 was 50,696, which was 10 people more than in 2022 and there were 50,542 residents in 2021, 16 more than in 2020.

Hjelte’s report explained that population change has two components – births versus deaths and people moving in or out of an area. Between 2020 and 2025, all five counties in northwest Oregon recorded more deaths than births, the report said.

“Lincoln County saw the largest natural population decrease, with losses more than double those of any other county in the region,” Hjelte said.

There were 1,804 births in Lincoln County from 2020 through 2025, according to PSU, but 4,000 deaths – resulting in a “natural decline” of 2,196 residents. During that same period, just 1,957 people moved to the county – and the resulting overall loss of population.

Countering the natural population decreases, all five counties experienced positive net migration, the report said, meaning more people moving into the region than out.

In general, net migration tends to increase during periods of expansion and job growth, while slowing during economic downturns, Hjelte’s report said, while the economic impact of migration also depends on the age of new residents and whether they begin working.

The Oregon Employment Department report said that in Benton, Clatsop, and Columbia counties, net migration exceeded natural population losses, leading to overall growth, reflecting a statewide trend. Between 2020 and 2025, Oregon experienced a natural decrease of 18,745 residents, offset by 76,962 in net migration.

Age has a lot to do with Lincoln County’s increase or decrease in its population.

In Lincoln County, 34.6 percent of residents are 65 years or older – the third highest proportion of older residents in Oregon’s 36 counties, according to the PSU population analysis. The only counties with a greater proportion of older residents are Curry and Wheeler counties. Oregon’s statewide average of people 65 or older is 21 percent.

The same holds true for young people in Lincoln County – 14 percent of residents are age 17 or younger. The only counties with a lower percentage of young people are, again, Curry and Wheeler. The statewide proportion of residents 17 or younger is 19 percent.

The largest city in Lincoln County – by a hair – is Newport, which had a population of 10,439 in 2025 compared with 10,256 in 2020 – an increase of 1.8 percent

Lincoln City is the next largest with 10,162 residents in 2025 compared with 9,815 in 2020 – an increase of 3.5 percent.

Populations for other cities Lincoln County are:

• Toledo: 3,654 in 2025; 3,558 in 2020; a 3 percent increase;
• Waldport: 2,362 in 2025; 2,249 in 2020; a 5 percent increase;
• Depoe Bay: 1,582 in 2025; 1,515 in 2020; a 4.4 percent increase;
• Siletz: 1,245 in 2025; 1,230 in 2020; a 1.2 percent increase; and
• Yachats: 1,010 in 2025; 994 in 2020; a 1.6 percent increase.

There were 19,974 people living in unincorporated Lincoln County – areas outside of cities – in 2025 compared with 20,790 in 2020, a decline of 816 residents or a decrease of 3.9 percent, according to the PSU figures.