By DIRK VANDERHART/Oregon Public Broadcasting
State Sen. Christine Drazan holds a commanding lead in the Republican race for Oregon governor, according to the only public poll to emerge in the race to date.
The new survey of 515 likely Republican primary voters shows Drazan with 31.1% support, compared to 15.6% support for state Rep. Ed Diehl, and 14.8% support for former Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.
Roughly 30% of those polled said they were still undecided in the race, but pollsters found Drazan gained ground when participants were asked who they’d pick if forced to choose. In that scenario, Drazan picked up an additional 5.8% of voters, while Dudley gained 3.3% and Diehl got 2%.
“This poll proves what we have been hearing and seeing around the state since Christine launched her campaign,” Drazan’s campaign manager, Jim Dornan, said in a statement to OPB. “Oregonians trust Christine as the best Republican candidate to take on Tina Kotek in November and make her a one-term governor.”
Drazan’s two closest rivals disagreed. Both Dudley and Diehl’s campaigns said separately Tuesday the poll results don’t reflect a momentum shift that is heading in their direction.
“Chris has been in this race for four months, while Drazan has been running for four years since she lost to Tina Kotek last time,” a Dudley spokesperson, Brittany Yanick, said in an email. “Chris is closing the gap steadily.”
The poll, by Salem-based Nelson Research, has a 4.3% margin of error. It was conducted from April 14-17, using a mix of phone conversations and text messages directing respondents to an online survey. That timeline coincides in part with the race’s first debate, held in Hillsboro on April 16.
Wilson based that opinion on both the new results and a poll he conducted for a client in March. While he did not release those earlier results, Wilson said they showed Drazan with a substantial lead, with Diehl in second place and Dudley a distant third.
“What has happened over the course of five weeks is Dudley and Diehl are more closely grouped for second,” Wilson said. “Diehl doesn’t hold that position on his own anymore.”
Wilson, a longtime lobbyist and former Republican legislative aide, attributes the shift to voters hearing more about Dudley.
As the party’s 2010 nominee for governor, Dudley came closer than any Republican in decades to retaking the governor’s mansion. This year, he’s raised more than $2 million, including $1 million from Nike co-founder Phil Knight, to reintroduce himself to Republican voters in a series of ads.
The new poll shows 24% of likely Republican voters still don’t know who Dudley is, compared to 8% for Drazan. Wilson doesn’t believe Dudley can close the gap in support with broader name ID.
“You look at where his support is coming from — it’s coming from self-identified moderates,” Wilson said. “Even then, he’s not necessarily beating Christine within that faction.”
Diehl, who has raised far less than Dudley and Drazan, is relying on enthusiasm and grassroots connections he forged last year, when he led a successful campaign to waylay gas tax increases passed by legislative Democrats. But the two-term state representative is less well known than his top opponents. Roughly 37% of respondents said they had not heard of him.
Diehl’s campaign manager, Mark Campbell, told OPB Tuesday that the lack of name ID meant that Diehl’s campaign has more potential than Drazan’s.
“Drazan has not increased her vote share in four months,” Campbell said. “She’s only got 31% of the vote with no place to go… We have always known that when people get to know Ed, they vote for Ed. We have more room to grow than Drazan does.”
Other candidates in the race got even less traction among poll respondents. David Medina, a social media figure from Sherwood who was pardoned by President Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, saw 7% support in the new poll.
Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell, who participated in last week’s debate alongside Drazan, Diehl and Dudley, had support from 2% of respondents.
