By ELIZABETH MILLER/Oregon Public Broadcasting

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education has published an edition of “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates,” every four years since 1979.

The 2024 edition of the report brings a bit of good news: Almost four million students will graduate from high school in 2025, the highest number recorded “since data have been available,” according to the report.

But after that, over the next 18 years, the number of graduates is predicted to decline by 13%, dropping to 3.4 million projected graduates by 2041.

“The news for colleges and the workforce is a cause for concern,” said Demarée Michelau, the president of WICHE.

The evidence for this projected decline comes from several numbers: declining birth rates, flat high school graduation rates and lower enrollment in elementary grades. The latter two factors may be in part due to changes to education after the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the report, Hawaii, Illinois and California will see the largest declines, of 33%, 32% and 29% respectively. Washington D.C., Tennessee, South Carolina will experience increases – 31% for D.C., 15% for Tennessee and 14% for South Carolina.

The West will experience the largest percentage decline compared to states in the Northeast, Midwest and South.

In Oregon, the projected decline is 19% – or about 8,000 students – by 2041. Ben Cannon, executive director of Oregon’s Higher Education Coordinating Commission, said in a statement that the report’s findings mean additional workforce shortages in the state.

“We know that we’re already not producing enough well-trained workers for a number of critical industries, and declining high school and college completion numbers will stretch an already-tight labor force even further,” Cannon shared.

What about Oregon and Washington?

Similar to national data, both Oregon and Washington may see declines in the number of high school graduates over the next 18 years.

In Washington, the number of projected enrollment is only expected to decline 8% over the next 18 years, about 6500 students. Washington enrolls more than one million students in its schools, almost double the number of students in Oregon schools.

In Oregon, the only student group expected to increase is Hispanic students. This mirrors national trends.

Oregon HECC officials say the increase in Hispanic students means the state needs to improve its support for students who have been historically underserved.

Washington is projected to see increases in the number of Hispanic, Black and Asian graduates.

In a call announcing the results of the report, WICHE officials said the report’s results present a warning for higher education.

“When we hit the peak in 2025 and then start declining with the number of high school graduates, that puts more downward pressure on those post secondary enrollments,” said Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis and research.

In Oregon, college enrollment has actually increased after going down during the pandemic, but remains below pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, colleges, especially small, private ones, have struggled to stay open or closed due to financial pressures.

One way to stave off the projected decline in the number of high school graduates? Improving graduation rates. Though the report’s authors say it would take a lot of work to get there.

“At a national level, in 2041, the country would have to graduate more than 95% of the students enrolled in ninth grade in 2037 to match the number of high school graduates projected for 2025,” the report states.

The latest nationwide graduation rate is 87%, for the Class of 2023. Oregon’s most recent graduation rate available, for the Class of 2023, was 81%. In Washington, the Class of 2023’s graduation rate was 84%.

HECC officials in Oregon agree that improving graduation rates in the state will help avoid a 19% decline in high school graduates. Both WICHE researchers and HECC officials say there are also opportunities at the higher education level, including getting adults back into college and earning a credential, as well as making post secondary options more affordable for young people.