The population growth of five northwest Oregon counties slowed in 2022, according to a new analysis from the state’s regional economist, likely tied to the area’s economic performance during the pandemic.
“Population growth in the region has slipped back to about what it was in 2013 and 2014 when the region was recovering from the Great Recession,” Oregon Employment Department economist Erik Knoder wrote in his recent study. “The average population growth rate since 2020 has been 0.5 percent per year, much slower than the 1.2 percent annual growth during the 1990s and even slower than rates of the 2000s and 2010s,”
Still, Knoder said, all five counties in northwest Oregon – Lincoln, Benton, Tillamook, Clatsop and Columbia — have been growing over the long run and are expected to continue doing so.
Here are some highlights from Knoder’s report:
- The total population of the five counties increased by 1,343 in 2022 to an estimated 269,679. The region grew by 2,000 or more people each year from 2005 through 2007 during the housing boom. It slowed as immigration slowed during the recession and early recovery. In 2014 population growth jumped by 1,900, and growth was more than that every year until 2021.
- Lincoln County relies heavily on in-migration for population growth. The county added 222 residents in 2022, which was pretty similar to its growth from 2013 through 2018, Knoder said. The county attracts retirees and high national housing prices, a pandemic, and remote work likely nudging people who want to retire to the coast. Slow job growth, lower wages, and high housing prices limit the county’s ability to attract even more people.
- Benton County, including the Corvallis area, provided 35 percent of the five county’s total population and 39 percent of the growth in 2022. Benton County’s resident population increased by 519 in 2022 after falling by 240 in 2021.
- Tillamook County’s population is nearly as old as Lincoln County’s where deaths often outnumber births and the county relies on migration for growth. The county’s population increased by 138 in 2022. Tillamook County tends to have a pretty resilient economy that weathers recessions well, probably due in part to its large food manufacturing industry.
- Clatsop County has had the fastest growth rate at 1 percent since 2020 of the five northwest Oregon counties and it also has added the largest number of people – 834– since 2020, beating even Benton County. The county added 289 residents in 2022.
- Columbia County was adding people at a good clip before the pandemic, but growth has fallen sharply since then. The county’s population fell by two residents in 2020 and added only 232 residents in 2021 and 176 residents in 2022.
Cities grow slowly also
Unincorporated areas in Lincoln County often add the most residents, but from the 2020 Census to July 2022 unincorporated Lincoln County lost an estimated 463 residents.
Most of Lincoln County’s population also lives along the coast. Siletz is the only truly interior city, and it added 17 residents from 2020 to 2022.
Newport added 499 residents and Lincoln City added 319 residents during the two years. Yachats added 68 people during 2021-22 for a total population of 1,062. Waldport added 100 residents for a total of 2,349.
Corvallis is by far the largest city in the five-county area but the pandemic has curtailed growth there, Knoder said, losing 488 residents from the 2020 Census to July 2022. This is probably due in part to changes in in-person attendance at Oregon State University, he said.
For many years Clatsop County’s fastest growing city has been Warrenton, which is on the coast and has land for development. But Warrenton added only 144 residents from 2020 to 2022. Gearhart has surpassed Warrenton, adding 128 residents in 2020-22. Astoria has been hampered by a shortage of buildable land, and the city added only 75 residents from 2020 to 2022. More than one-third of this county’s population resides in unincorporated areas, and unincorporated areas accounted for 42 percent of the county’s growth from 2020 to 2022.
Most of Columbia County’s population increase in the past decade has been concentrated in its southern portion, such as Scappoose and St. Helens where commuting distances to the Portland job market are shorter, and in unincorporated parts of the county. Unincorporated areas of Columbia County typically account for much of the growth in the county, but unincorporated areas lost an estimated 111 people during 2020-2022. Almost all the growth in the county from 2020 to 2022 occurred in St. Helens, which added 554 residents.
Tillamook County has the smallest population of the five counties in northwest Oregon and its cities are also smaller. About 62 percent of the county’s population lives in unincorporated areas and unincorporated areas added 119 residents from 2020 to 2022. The city of Tillamook added 120 residents over the two years. Bay City added 150 residents and also had the fastest growth rate in the county – 5.3 percent per year on average from 2020 to 2022.
