Lincoln County’s population drops to 7-year low as deaths, departures outnumber births, new residents

By DANA TIMS/Lincoln Chronicle

Lincoln County’s population dipped last year to at least a seven-year low, but the cause of that drop is still being scrutinized.

But the net loss of 342 county residents in the year ending June 30, 2025, compared with the same time in 2024 is in line with what many other Oregon counties experienced —  urban, well populated counties picking up numbers and more rural areas experiencing declines.

The numbers are based on new certified Oregon population estimates from Portland State University’s Population Research Center.

Lincoln County’s decline from 2024 to 2025 came mainly in its unincorporated areas, with 242 of the losses coming outside of the county’s seven incorporated cities. And while Newport did register a population decline of 213 residents from 2024 to 2025, the county’s six other cities and towns added a total of 103 residents during that same, one year period.

Lincoln City led the way in population growth last year with 55 new residents. Following were Depoe Bay with 19, Waldport with 18, Siletz with seven and Yachats with four. Toledo’s population of 3,654 in 2024 remained identical in 2025.

Huda Alkitkat, PSU’s population estimates program manager, said “natural decrease” – more deaths than births and in-migration – was likely the primary driver behind population declines in Oregon’s more rural counties, including Lincoln County, which dipped to 50,428 residents in 2025. That was down 342 residents from 50,770 people in 2024 and 50,969 in 2023.

“The main reason is that natural decrease is widespread among the majority of these counties,” she said in an email to Lincoln Chronicle. “As their populations are aging, a phenomenon known to demographers as ‘natural decrease’ (occurs), where the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. In the absence of migration, these counties’ populations would be in decline.”

Natural decrease, in fact, occurred in 27 of Oregon’s 36 counties last year, she said. But in a number of areas, led by Washington, Deschutes, Multnomah, Marion and Clackamas counties, enough in-migration occurred to result in net population increases.

An economist’s view

Shaun Barrick, a state labor economist for the area, said other factors can be involved in population declines, especially in areas situated right between a city’s urban growth boundary and its unincorporated area outside of that.

“So as any particular urban growth boundary is expanded a city will pick up population as people are moved inside the boundary,” Barrick said. “There’s certainly some of that going on.”

He also noted that during the period from July 2024 to 2025, other statistics show that Lincoln County’s labor force actually increased. Squaring those two trends will likely need to await the release later this year of statistics that will enable economists to more accurately compare jobs losses versus population changes.

Of some concern, Barrick said, is Newport’s loss of 213 residents compared with 2024 population numbers.

“That drop in Newport’s population looks more concerning to me,” he said. “We don’t often see that.”

Again, he added, new sets of numbers might help economists to better understand whether the losses of jobs due to recent industrial and commercial closures were responsible for the dip, or whether people have simply left the area for opportunities elsewhere.

A balancing act

Aside from the sheer interest in population growth or loss, these numbers are important for other reasons, as well. Chief among those is that they can be determinative in deciding how much, or little, any community might be in line to receive from five state of Oregon shared revenue programs.

Together, those five programs – the state highway trust fund, liquor revenues, marijuana taxes, cigarettes taxes and 9-1-1 taxes – passed along a total of $310 million to Oregon cities in 2023-2024.

“We watch those numbers year in and year out for a lot of reasons,” said Waldport city manager Dann Cutter.

In his city’s case, the overriding philosophy in recent years has not been to grow as fast as possible and thus qualifying for more state funding, he said, but to not create so much growth that the city is forced to expand its level of debt.

“A lot of cities on the coast thrive on growth,” Cutter said. “We’re happy to focus on smart growth. We are not at all focused on exceeding the capacity of our systems to support new homes coming in.”

• Dana Tims is an Oregon freelance writer who contributes regularly to Lincoln Chronicle and can be reached at [email protected]